Deadline 1 April, 2026

Project 1.3

The Effects of Polarization Panic and Migration on Social Cohesion in Local Communities

Cluster 1

Migration, Identity and Belonging

Supervisors

Department

Department of Psychology

Project start date

1 September 2026

Location

Utrecht University

Involved disciplines

Psychology; sociology

Candidate Requirements

  • MA/MSc degree in social psychology; interest in, and ideally some familiarity with sociology
  • Interest in the topic of social cohesion and in collaborating in a broad research consortium with academic and non-academic stakeholders
  • Strong interest in interdisciplinary research, including analytic and theoretical dimensions
  • Professional competence in English 
  • Competence in Dutch is a plus
  • Strong methodological skills, particularly with surveys and field experiments
  • Ability to organise data collection 
  • Proactive in engagement with stakeholders and local communities, and setting up collaborations and on-site research activities
  • We look for team players who want to play an active role in an inter- and transdisciplinary research community and training programme

Aim of the project

This project examines how (mis)perceptions of polarization around migration issues affect social cohesion in local communities and how such misperceptions can be effectively corrected. Public debates on migration are often framed as confrontations between ‘pro’ and ‘anti’ positions, fostering what has been described as polarization panic: the belief that society is deeply divided despite limited empirical evidence. People tend to overestimate disagreement about migration, creating an exaggerated sense of social division. Even when inaccurate, these perceptions can have real consequences for trust, belonging and willingness to cooperate at the neighbourhood level. By comparing perceived and actual attitudes, the project analyses these effects and develops an intervention to reduce misperceptions and strengthen local social cohesion.

Description

Rationale/gap

Public debates on migration are frequently framed as confrontations between ‘pro’ and ‘anti’ positions. Such framings can undermine social cohesion by reinforcing the idea that society is deeply divided. This has been described as polarization panic: the belief that social cleavages are profound, even though empirical evidence for such divisions is limited. Perceptions of polarization are often driven by misperceptions of conflicting attitudes. People tend to overestimate the gap between their own migration attitudes and those of others, creating an exaggerated sense of societal division.

Existing research has demonstrated that these misperceptions of attitudes are widespread. However, two important gaps remain. First, we know little about what these misperceptions mean for social cohesion at the local level, specifically for trust, belonging and willingness to cooperate. It is tempting to dismiss perceptions of polarization as simply misguided or inaccurate. Yet even when they are incorrect, such perceptions can have real social consequences by shaping behaviour and intergroup relations . Second, it remains unclear how misperceptions about polarization can be corrected in ways that strengthen, rather than undermine, social cohesion.

Scope of the Project

The project focuses on neighbourhoods as everyday social environments in which residents encounter diversity and live side by side. While most existing research examines misperceptions at the national level, this project explicitly shifts attention to the local level. This is particularly relevant in the Dutch context, where polarization panic around migration often has a strong local dimension. A clear example is the heated public debate surrounding the establishment of refugee reception centres. The announcement or anticipated arrival of such a centre can function as an external shock, shaping how residents perceive the migration attitudes of others in their municipality or neighbourhood.

Neighbourhoods offer a unique opportunity to directly compare perceived and actual attitudes. This project measures what people believe their neighbours think about migration and contrasts these perceptions with neighbours’ self-reported attitudes. By linking these subjective perceptions to behavioural and contextual indicators, such as voting patterns, neighbourhood composition and participation in local initiatives, we can identify where misperceptions occur, how large the perception–reality gap is and what consequences these misperceptions have for social cohesion at the local level.

Social cohesion will be assessed using indicators including neighbourhood involvement, perceived threat from neighbours, participation in volunteer work, frequency of social contact and sense of belonging or community. In collaboration with local stakeholders, the project then develops an intervention to correct such misperceptions.

Project Deliverables

  • A theoretical and empirical framework explaining how misperceptions of migration attitudes undermine social cohesion.
  • An intervention co-developed with local stakeholders aimed at reducing misperceptions and strengthening social cohesion within communities.
  • Practical recommendations and guidelines for municipalities, civil society organizations and policymakers on addressing misperceptions of migration attitudes and enhancing social cohesion.

Research design

The research design combines quantitative survey methods, network analysis and a field experiment. The project starts with a pre-test in diverse neighbourhoods across the Netherlands. Residents will complete a survey measuring 1) their own migration attitudes; 2) perceptions of other neighbourhood residents’ migration attitudes, allowing us to assess misperceptions and polarization panic; 3) ego network composition at the neighbourhood level (e.g., discussion partners, practical support ties, frequency of contact); and 4) social cohesion outcomes, such as trust in neighbours, sense of belonging, neighbourhood involvement, willingness to cooperate and loneliness.

Neighbourhood-level and contextual data (e.g., demographic composition, socio-economic indicators and voting patterns) will be linked to individual responses to examine where misperceptions are most pronounced and how they relate to local contexts.

Following the pre-test, three of the six neighbourhoods will be assigned to an intervention condition, while the remaining neighbourhoods serve as controls. In collaboration with local stakeholders, an intervention will be co-developed and piloted that aims to correct misperceptions about local migration attitudes. The effectiveness of the intervention will be evaluated using a post-test survey identical to the pre-test.

In addition to self-reported outcomes, the post-test includes a behavioural indicator of social cohesion, collected through a small-scale observational or experimental task embedded in a local community activity (e.g., cooperation or contribution in a neighbourhood initiative).

Relevant literature

Kros, M., & Hewstone, M. (2020). Negative and positive interethnic contact and the association of ethnic neighbourhood composition with trust, cohesion, and prejudice. European Sociological Review, 36(6), 937–956.

Nijs, T. (2025). Breaking false polarization: How information on descriptive norms mitigates worry rooted in polarization (mis)perceptions. Social Inclusion, 13, 1–18.

Contact person

Belle Derks

b.derks@uu.nl
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